Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators have been stronger than expected despite the ongoing war. This contributed to the upward revision of the IMF’s forecast for economic growth.
The IMF revised their basic estimates of real GDP growth of Ukraine in 2023 to 4.5%. However, growth is expected to moderate slightly to 3-4% in 2024 as the war drags on. Additionally, significant risks remain due to high uncertainty caused by war, potential policy miscalculations, and delays or shortfalls in external financing.
The IMF expects Ukraine to reduce the budget deficit, increase revenues, and adopt the National Revenue Strategy.
The head of the IMF Mission in Ukraine, Gavin Gray, clarified that the Fund expects the Ukrainian government to have started implementing the strategy in December. According to him, it will increase domestic revenues to 3-4% of GDP.