Real GDP growth in Ukraine as of May has already reached +2.4% compared to -29.1% at the end of last year, while inflation indicators have decreased and conditions on the foreign exchange market have improved. “The latest data analysis indicates more stable economic activity than at the time of approval of the EFF program,” the IMF noted.
However, the destruction of the Kakhovka dam is an unforeseen risk, which “may affect GDP growth due to the loss of arable land, migration, and disruption of industrial facilities, including from the lack of water and electricity.”
At the same time, the IMF pointed to the deterioration of budget deficit indicators. It should be noted that, according to the NBU, the state budget deficit in June reached almost UAH 179B (excluding grants in revenues). And for January-June, almost UAH 746B excluding grants and UAH 476.3B including grants.