According to an EBRD forecast, Ukraine’s economy will grow by 3% in 2024 and by 6% in 2025. This pace is lower than the 5.3% rise in 2023 following a sharp drop in 2022 caused by the Russian invasion.
The EBRD says that despite the increase in Ukraine’s GDP in 2023, helped by a record harvest, damage to the electricity infrastructure due to recent shelling is one of the factors likely to limit further growth in 2024.
New challenges have also emerged this year, including the prospect of a protracted war of attrition and uncertainty over external funding that has lasted for several months. Limited domestic demand, labor shortages, and insufficient investment will also harm the growth rate.
A significant positive factor is the opening of the Black Sea export corridor, the use of which is gaining momentum. However, significant risks remain, particularly in connection with damage to port and energy infrastructure.