The Ukrainian economy will grow by 3-4% by the end of 2024, which is less than 2023, according to the macro forecast from the Center for Economic Strategy (CES). As experts explain, the pessimism regarding GDP growth forecasts is primarily caused by the losses suffered by the Ukrainian energy infrastructure due to Russian attacks.
Inflation is expected at 7.5% according to the average forecast and over 9% according to the highest. At the same time, it is lower than the expectations in December, when the maximum inflation level reached 13%.
The average expectation for financing needs in Ukraine’s state budget amounts to $53B, while the IMF forecasts $43B. This is less than the $60B figure for 2023. Despite this, experts estimate the difference between budgetary needs and international support this year to be about $17B.
Therefore, the state and state-guaranteed debt will not exceed 100% of GDP and amount to 94-96%. The hryvnia is expected to weaken in 2024.
The dollar exchange rate will be around ₴40 per $1 and may rise to ₴42 per $1 by the end of the year.