The growth of Ukraine’s GDP in 2024 will slow to approximately 4% from almost 6% in 2023, with an increase in inflation to 8% from 5.1% last year. At the end of the year, the exchange rate will be ₴39 for $1, said Tomas Fiala, the head of investment company Dragon Capital.
Among the positive factors, the investment banker noted the establishment of exports through ports on the Black Sea. Dragon Capital’s forecast suggests that the security situation will not improve, but the country’s nominal dollar GDP could reach an all-time high of $203B after roughly $200B in 2021.
The investment company also predicts that Ukraine will receive the $37B in foreign aid that the state budget plans to receive this year: $5B from the IMF, almost $20B from the EU, and $8B from the US, as well as funds from Canada, Japan, the UK, and Norway. The first significant influx of funds is expected in March: $4.5B from the EU and the fourth tranche under the IMF program of about $900M.