Based on 2023’s results, the ICU investment company predicts GDP growth between 5.8% and 5% in the coming year. It is also assumed that at the end of 2023 inflation will be 6.2%. Inflation is expected to remain at no more than 7% until at least the summer of next year and then accelerate somewhat.
The forecast for the end of the year is 10.1%. Ukraine is predicted to receive at least $28B-$30B in foreign aid. The hryvnia will devalue slightly next year, and by the end of the year, the exchange rate will be ₴40.7 to $1. Also, the National Bank’s reserves are forecasted to grow to $44B.
In parallel with this, Dragon Capital raised its estimate of Ukraine’s economic growth in 2023 to 5.2%. The company maintains its forecast for 2024, expecting real GDP to increase by 4%. Analysts expect international partners to approve new financial support packages and provide about $40B in direct budget financing in 2024. Assuming sufficient international financial support, Dragon Capital expects that the NBU’s reserves will gradually grow and reach $45B by the end of 2024.