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How did Ukraine’s economy react to the beginning of Russian aggression in 2014 and the full-scale war in 2022?

Zelenskyy's office believes the economy will recover two years after the war’s end.

Ukraine High Resolution Economy Concept

Ukraine’s GDP did not fall as much in 2014 as it did in 2022, when it suffered a record-setting decline. In 2014-2015, GDP fell by 15.8%, and in 2022 – by almost 30%.

However, the trajectory of recovery during the different stages of the Russian invasion is also different: in 2014, GDP fell for two years in a row, but after a year of full-scale war, it showed a recovery of 5.7%.

However, Ukrainians felt their well-being deteriorated more in 2014, resulting from a sharp increase in inflation and the devaluation of the hryvnia. After the full-scale invasion, these phenomena were also present, but on a smaller scale, thanks to unprecedented international support and decisive measures to maintain macro-financial stability.

Devaluation in 2014-2015 reached almost 67%, and inflation over two years was nearly 80%. The situation was radically different in 2022-2023. During 2022’s record fall in GDP, the hryvnia did not depreciate as much, and inflation rates were significantly lower (26.6%). Inflation slowed to 5.1% last year.

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