Ukraine’s public debt is already approaching 100% of GDP, and financing needs for recovery are currently around $600B. Even under the baseline scenario, the peak value of public debt is 103.9% of GDP, significantly deviating from an economically safe level. Under a pessimistic scenario, a permanent increase in public debt is projected, reaching a maximum value of 130% of GDP in 2028.
Overall, the analysis shows that maintaining the sustainability of Ukraine’s public finances in the medium term will require attracting adequate external financing, bringing the share of grants in its structure to at least 45%, and conducting a second restructuring of external debt in 2026. Under this scenario, public debt will be 102.7% of GDP in 2025, 90.1% in 2026, 85.5% in 2027, and 82% in 2026.
To implement this scenario, the EU’s collective institutions and its states should play a leading role in mobilizing sufficient concessional financing for Ukraine within the framework of EU budgetary mechanisms.