Investment group Dragon Capital has improved its inflation forecast in 2024 from 8% to 7.6%. At the same time, the previous estimate of a 4% increase in GDP in 2024 has been maintained thanks to the recovery in maritime exports and the development of the military-industrial complex, which will outweigh the negative impact of increased mobilization and electricity shortages.
The forecast for the average annual exchange rate of the hryvnia shifted from ₴37.3 per $1 to ₴40 per $1, and the rate at the end of the year from ₴39 per $1 to ₴42 per $1.
External financial support for Ukraine’s budget will amount to $37B. However, the budget situation remains tense and will require the mobilization of internal resources. At the same time, the increase in defense spending can be partially financed by a reduction in non-military expenditures (for example, on servicing external commercial debt following its restructuring) and additional revenues (a tax on bank windfalls, an increase in fuel excise rates, etc.).
The budget deficit for the public administration sector will decrease to about ₴1.6T from ₴1.7T last year (excluding grants).