Unblocking seaports will allow Ukraine to reduce the decline in the GDP.

 Ukraine’s GDP will fall by 30% in 2022, but unblocking seaports would reduce the economic downturn to 22-25%, according to Dragon Capital Chief Economist Olena Belan. According to her, “A 50% GDP decline at the end of the year is a very pessimistic estimate. We can talk about a 30% drop if military action subsides. And if the ports open, we can expect a GDP decline of 22-25%.” At the same time, Alexander Parashchiy, Head of Concorde Capital’s Analytical Department, estimates the country’s economic downturn in 2022 at 35-40%. “Even if the war ends today, we will be able to restore a maximum of 80% of what was before February. So, on average, during the year we will have a GDP decline closer to 35-45%,” he said.