Ukraine’s hryvnia is likely to strengthen in the first half of 2021

Ukraine’s hryvnia is likely to strengthen in the first half of 2021, thanks to foreign-currency inflows from exports and renewed interest by foreign investors in Ukrainian local bonds, a Reuters monthly poll of 13 analysts indicated yesterday. Last year, foreign investors cut their bond portfolio by almost $2 billion, or 42%. In the second half of December, foreign investors reversed, buying $368 million worth of bonds. This year, forecasts of continued strong prices for metals and grains coupled with resumed IMF lending make for a median June exchange rate forecast of UAH 27.60/$1, about 2% stronger than the current level. Last year, the hryvnia lost 17% of its value, largely in March.