The ICU’s Head of the Macroeconomic Research Department, Vitaliy Vavryshchuk, said the economy will mostly recover at rates between 3% and 5% over the next two to three years. However, an economic jump requires new investment, which requires the absence of security risks when planning over a 5-15 year timeframe.
However, the structure of the restored economy after the invasion is unknown. Businesses are likely to reorient themselves more to the service sector than to invest in large factories. Since the threat from Russia may persist in the coming decades, investors will focus more on sectors with human capital. The recovery will occur mainly due to increased household consumption – the population will spend more due to a rise in exports.
Vavryshchuk added that the two main factors that will bring greater stability to Ukraine’s economy in 2024 will be a minimum of $30B in international financial aid and an increase in exports through the grain corridor without Russian participation. At the same time, even inflation increasing up to 10%, will not harm the economy. It will only be a temporary phenomenon, and there is no risk of it getting out of control.