The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine will slightly accelerate in the coming months, but overall inflation will remain moderate. As noted in the Ministry of Economy’s review, price growth is expected to accelerate to 0.8% in October (after 0.5% growth in September). In general, the price growth rate since the beginning of the year (3.8%) corresponds to the calmest years in terms of inflation during peacetime and in annual terms (5.3%). It reached the lowest level in the last three years; the last time inflation was lower than this value was in December 2020, when the annual rate was 5%. The October price increase is the result of:
- an unexpected increase in food prices – for the first time after falling for three consecutive months, food prices resumed their growth.
- continued energy prices increase
By the end of the year, in the absence of force majeure circumstances, the trend of restrained inflation, with its slight growth in recent months, is unlikely to change. The inertial potential of important factors will generally lead to low-price volatility and, thus, moderate inflation in general.