The Business Activity Expectation Index (BAEI) increased to 44.4 in July from 43.6 in June but is still below this year’s high of 52.3, recorded in April. Adaptability to energy supply problems, the maritime corridor’s stable operation, stable inflationary expectations, and easing of currency restrictions have positively impacted business expectations.
At the same time, the deterioration of the security situation, the risk of further terrorist attacks against critical infrastructure, the weakening of the hryvnia to the dollar, and the personnel shortage remain restraining factors.
Construction enterprises improved their estimates of their economic results: the sectoral index in July was 49.6 against 43 in June. Industrial enterprises maintained restrained expectations: the sectoral index in July was 45.8 (45.5 in June). Enterprises in the service sector softened their negative rating to 42.5 from 39.7. However, trade enterprises have slightly worsened expectations under prolonged power outages and weaker exchange rate expectations, to 44.7 from 46.4.