Companies expect business activity to grow in the next 12 months, albeit slightly slower. This is evidenced by the Business Expectations Index of enterprises, which was 101.6% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
A slight revival of business activity is predicted due to the preservation of positive expectations resulting from the total sales volume of domestic goods, investment expenditures, and the future financial and economic situation.
At the same time, the war and its consequences remain the main factor restraining development. The lack of qualified workers has also had a significantly increased impact.
Businesses predict growth in the production of goods and services over the next 12 months: the balance of responses was 15.2% (9.8% in the third quarter). The improvement in inflation expectations continues for the fifth consecutive quarter: annual inflation is forecast at 11.3% (versus 14.8%). Forecasts regarding changes in the number of employees remain negative: -6.5% (against -7%).
At the same time, a faster increase in labor costs is expected; the balance of responses is 57.9% (against 47.2%).