Fitch Ratings predicts a slowdown in Ukraine’s economic growth. In 2024, GDP growth is predicted to reach 4%, facilitated by the normalization of Black Sea trade activity, high government spending, and household income. In 2025 economic growth is forecast to slow to 2.9% due to labor and electricity shortages. However, “a long-term and reliable ceasefire could significantly improve the country’s growth prospects in 2025-2026.”
As for inflation, Fitch’s estimate is 9.3% in 2025 versus 6.2% in 2024.
The ratings agency expects Russia’s war against Ukraine to continue in 2025 within its current broad parameters. The new US administration’s stated policy goal of ending the war could lead to a negotiated ceasefire, “but a peace agreement is unlikely due to the difficult concessions that would be required from both sides.
“The parameters of a negotiated ceasefire, including security guarantees for Ukraine and the territories that will remain under Russian control, remain uncertain,” Fitch said.