According to the National Bank, financial analysts forecasted the hryvnia exchange rate for the next 12 months at UAH 39.54/$1 in June. In April, they were expecting an exchange rate of ₴40.04/$1. Bankers, in turn, expect the exchange rate to be UAH 41.38/$1, and the population expects the rate to be UAH 39.43/$1.
The dynamics of Ukraine’s foreign exchange market in recent months were significantly better than analysts’ forecasts. The average selling rate of the cash dollar fell in May by 0.5% to UAH 37.59, the lowest since June last year. Compared to December 2022, the rate decreased by 6.5%.
As for inflation, according to financial analysts it will fall to 13.5% in the next 12 months from the 16.2% forecast in April. It is worth noting that in May, Ukraine’s inflation slowed to 15.3%. The NBU expects that by the end of the year, it will be less than 15%, and in 2024 less than 10%.