The interruption of the supply of Ukrainian goods by truck through Poland will affect both the export and import of goods to Ukraine. According to preliminary calculations by the National Bank, in 2023 the share of road transport in the value of exports was about 35%, and imports – 70%.
“Assuming transport delays at the current level, the maximum monthly reduction is estimated at $160M for exports and $240M for imports,” the NBU noted.
However, given that the border blockade by Poland began on November 6, the reduction of exports and imports in November will be smaller than the given estimates.
According to customs data, in October 2023 imports into Ukraine increased to $5.64B (against $5.36B on average for the third quarter and $5.07B for the first half of the year); exports did not change significantly at $2.68B.