European gas storage facilities are full, and regional demand is falling to levels not seen since the early 1980s. However, prices remain elevated, having recently hit an eight-month high. The current volume of gas is sufficient if everything goes according to plan. If the winter is typical or even warmer than usual, and nothing breaks, then the current stocks will be enough. In such a scenario, natural gas prices could fall significantly before Christmas or early January, when a third of the season will be over. Currently, prices are €40 per MWh and may drop to €30-25. However, there are some risks:
- Weather. Meteorologists predict a La Niña winter, brining cooler than normal temperatures to Europe, which will determine this season beginning in October or November. Therefore, Europe could face a typical or even colder-than-usual winter.
- Russian gas. Austria, Slovakia, Hungary and Italy still depend on Moscow for gas supplies. The contract for transit through Ukraine expires at the end of 2024, and what will happen next is still not clear.