Prior to the full-scale war in 2021, Ukraine’s shadow economy was estimated to be around 30% of GDP. Last year, the Ministry of Economy reported that potentially 40% of the economy could take place in the shadows. However, in specific industries like trade, that figure might reach 60-70%.
According to Ernst Young, the shadow economy represented 11.8% of total global GDP in 2023, based on the latest data. Concurrently, in about half of the countries examined, the shadow economy exceeds 19%. Ukraine’s shadow economy in 2023 measured 19.3%, significantly lower than the estimates provided by Ukrainian authorities.
In countries such as Niger, Nepal, and Ethiopia, more than half of the economy was in the shadows, while in Burundi, Mali, and Tanzania, this mark exceeded 40%. Researchers estimate India’s shadow economy for 2023 at 26.1%, China at 20.3%, Belarus at 18.3%, Russia at 13.1%, Poland at 9.7%, Germany at 6.8%, France at 6.7%, Britain at 5.3%, and the US at 5%.
Kuwait, Singapore, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE have the lowest percentages of untaxed trade as a share of total GDP.