The rating agency Fitch Ratings, after the completion of Eurobond debt restructuring, raised the long-term issuer default rating (IDR) of Ukraine in local currency to CCC+ from CCC- and confirmed the long-term IDR in foreign currency at the level of RD (Restricted Default). Fitch has also assigned CCC foreign-currency issue ratings to the Bond A series (2029, 2034, 2035, and 2036) and Bond B series (2030, 2034, 2035, and 2036).
Fitch forecasts total public debt to be 89.6% of GDP in 2024, down from a forecast of 92.5% in its June review.
At the same time, Fitch emphasizes that the ratings for new bond issues and Ukraine’s long-term IDR reflect a significant credit risk given the protracted nature of the war, perhaps continuing into 2025, which will lead to the maintenance of a large budget deficit (17.5% of GDP in 2024 and 15.3% of GDP in 2025) and financing uncertainty from 2025.