Military analyst Dara Massicot of the Carnegie Endowment believes that without an increase in Western military aid and major changes in Kyiv’s strategy, Ukraine’s position on the battlefield will continue to deteriorate until it reaches a tipping point, possibly by summer.
“Under current conditions, when Ukraine’s needs for ammunition and manpower are not being met, Ukrainian units will begin to wear out, which could turn Russian breakthroughs into a real possibility,” she says.
According to Massicot, it is urgently necessary to carry out a new mobilization in Ukraine, sharply increase the supply of ammunition from the West, and accelerate the construction of new lines of defense.
Meanwhile, the US is dissatisfied with Ukraine’s military strategy. The Pentagon believes that Ukraine needs to focus its forces on one major battle at a time. Instead, President Zelenskyy has committed his resources to fighting for cities with no strategic value, according to US officials.
At the same time, Ukrainians are disappointed with the delay in critical aid from the US.