The spring and early summer of 2023 will be pivotal in the Russian war against Ukraine. If Russia’s big offensive, which is planned during this time, fails it will be the downfall of Russia and Putin, said Ukraine’s deputy military intelligence chief Vadym Skibitsky. After this period, it will be possible to start talking about the war’s end. It is now possible to see where this war is heading: the Russian military leadership has changed, the first mobilization stage has ended, and the Russian army is regrouping. According to Skibitsky, the Russian military’s main activity will unfold in the directions of Donetsk and Luhansk following heavy battles in these regions. However, a new attack by the Russians on Kyiv from Belarus is unlikely, as well as active hostilities in the south of Ukraine, where the Russians are more concerned about the defense of occupied Crimea.