Analysts note that by the end of 2024, state and state-guaranteed debt amounted to ₴6.98T, or $166.1B. Over the year, this amount increased by more than 26% in hryvnia and by 14% in foreign currency terms. The ratio of state debt to GDP stands at 87.9%.
Even more, experts predict that this year the situation may worsen, with state debt expected to exceed 100% of GDP as Ukraine continues to actively seek external financing to cover its current $38B budget deficit. According to the National Revenue Strategy, domestic financing sources should eventually replace funds from foreign partners. However, government bonds and tax revenue only cover half of the state’s budget expenditures and new income sources must be identified.
It is also expected that financing the state budget in 2026 will be much more difficult than it is now. Other channels for capital inflow can only be anticipated if hostilities cease and the level of protection for investment improves. In 2026, Ukraine may receive $20B from partners, while the budget deficit is projected to reach ₴200-250B ($4.8-6B).