“Tymoshenko seems very well placed to emerge as president,” veteran Ukraine observer Timothy Ash concludes after one week of interviews in Kyiv. Whoever wins the second round in April, he writes, will be constrained by economic realities, including the need to pay $6 billion in foreign debts. “Tymoshenko is likely to have to quickly moderate more populist political demands – rowing back from plans for gas price cuts, and to make meaningful management changes at the NBU,” he writes in a 3,000-word analysis. “Post-election, economic realism will set in… the market will not finance Ukraine if policymakers go off track with the IMF program. Simply put, there is no alternative to continued engagement with the IMF.”
