US presidential candidate Donald Trump and his potential vice president, JD Vance, have repeatedly spoken about their desire to end the war in Ukraine. In September, Vance floated the idea of a frozen conflict with autonomous regions on either side of a demilitarized zone and Kyiv left in diplomatic limbo, outside NATO.
This plan may be a rethinking of the Minsk Agreements of 2014 and 2015, aimed at ending hostilities in eastern Ukraine. This time, an agreement would provide enforcement mechanisms with consequences for violating the agreement. However, enforcement should be controlled by European troops, not NATO forces or UN peacekeepers.
Ukraine’s membership in NATO would be removed from the agenda for several years to compel Russia to negotiate, according to a former CIA analyst. However, these negotiations would not include any final agreement as long as Putin rules Russia.
However, to force Putin to sit at the negotiating table, Trump may also threaten to collapse oil and gas prices.