Russia will have to bid goodbye to its “energy superpower” status. Having lost access to Western technologies and key markets for the sale of raw materials, Russia will not be able to return to its previous volumes of hydrocarbon exports, predicts the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
It is expected that in the next 25 years, the Russian economy will lose 40% of its fuel exports, and its revenues will decrease by almost 65% by 2050.In 2021, 821 million tons of oil, coal, and gas were exported from Russia, by 2030, total exports will drop to 583 million tons, by 2040 to 561 million tons, and by 2050 to 486 million tons.
Foreign exchange will decrease from $315B in 2021 to $146B by 2030. Revenue from fuel exports was one of the main factors in the Russian Federation’s economic recovery. At the end of the 2010s, exports provided about 33% of Russian GDP, but in the coming decades, the fuel and energy complex will lose its role as the locomotive of the economy, and its contribution to the GDP will decrease fivefold.