The national bank estimates that the economy will decline by 40% in the first half of this year and at the end of the year down by a third, the National Bank of Ukraine reported. At the same time, analysts of the regulator believe that the economy of Ukraine will show a recovery of 5-6% in 2023-2024. This will become possible if the active phase of the war ends and the Black Sea ports are unblocked. The national bank also worsened the inflation forecast for 2022 to more than 30%. However, the regulator expects it to return to the goal of 5% in 2025. According to the NBU forecast, inflation will decrease to 20.7% in 2023 and 9.4% in 2024. As the market expected, the NBU kept the discount rate at 25% per annum and plans to keep it at this level until the second quarter of 2024.
The NBU predicts a 2022 drop in GDP by a third and an increase in inflation to more than 30%.
Ukraine’s real GDP will shrink by at least a third.