A majority among members of the NBU’s Monetary Policy Committee expect the discount rate to decrease by one percentage point to 15% in December, the NBU reported. Accordingly, adjustments to other NBU rates that govern transactions with banks are also expected.
However, panelists generally agree that the scope for easing interest rates in 2024 appears limited for now, given plans for currency liberalization and some expected acceleration in inflation next year.
Several members of the Committee suggested that the NBU may revise its discount rate forecast in January’s new forecast cycle in the event of positive changes in the balance of risk for exchange rate stability and price dynamics. The basis for this may be confirmation of regular receipt of international aid, improvement of expectations, and greater than currently expected balance of the foreign exchange market. This development will enable the NBU to lower interest rates further.