Seven members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank expect a reduction in the discount rate to 18%-19% at the end of 2023. They are convinced that considering the expected decrease in inflation, a discount rate at this level will make it possible to provide sufficient protection of hryvnia savings.
Two more committee members see the prerequisites for a sharper discount rate reduction. In their opinion, the disinflationary trend is stable, and the National Bank’s ability to ensure exchange rate stability is high, especially considering the expected volumes of international aid in the coming years.
However, the other two members of the committee expect a slower easing of the interest rate policy – up to 20% by the end of this year. In their opinion, the NBU should continue to adhere to balanced assumptions and avoid risky scenarios and policy reversals.
On July 28, the key policy rate was reduced from 25% to 22%.