Bruno Kahl, the head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND), believes that Russia continues to prepare for an actual military confrontation with Western countries, but a full-scale attack by Russia will be preceded by local operations designed to test the strength of NATO’s charter.
The idea is that Moscow will try to undermine the obligation to provide direct military assistance to NATO members, enshrined in Article 5 of the defense alliance’s charter. Russian officials are considering creating an “emergency” for one of the NATO countries, in which other members of the Alliance would not “respond appropriately,” Kahl explained.
As examples, he cited a possible “short-term attack” on the Norwegian archipelago of Spitsbergen or a conflict with the Baltic states under the pretext of protecting local Russian-speaking minorities. If Article 5 is not invoked in such conflicts, NATO as a defensive alliance faces failure – this is the goal being pursued by the Russian Federation.