The loss of the European gas market, which accounted for almost 80% of Gazprom’s exports, will cost the Russian federal budget $28B in tax revenue this year, according to Vygon Consulting. Gazprom will lose about $90B in sales compared to last year’s figure.
Russian authorities will try to compensate for the lost revenues by increasing gas exports to China and the tax burden on Gazprom. However, only 22 billion cubic meters are pumped through the Power of Siberia pipeline to China, which is one-eighth of what the EU bought before the war, and additional gas taxes will cover less than a quarter of the revenue lost from gas exports to Europe.
According to Western media, Gazprom pumped only 12.1 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe in the first half of the year. If this pace is maintained, the annual export volume will be about 24 billion cubic meters, the lowest level in almost half a century.