The European Commission has improved its economic forecast despite the war in Ukraine.

Europe will manage to avoid the recession that was expected at the beginning of the year, the European Commission believes. In particular, it is noted that almost a year after the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine the EU economy entered 2023 in a better state than was predicted in the fall. This was facilitated by the resolution of the gas crisis. As a result, the annual growth rate for 2022 is estimated at 3.5% in the EU and the euro area. The GDP growth forecast for 2023 has been raised from 0.3% to 0.8% in the 27 EU countries and to 0.9% in the 20 eurozone countries. The growth rate forecast for 2024 has not changed and is estimated at 1.6% and 1.5% for the EU and the eurozone, respectively. Headline inflation is forecast to fall from 9.2% in 2022 to 6.4% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024 in the EU. The euro area is projected to decelerate from 8.4% in 2022 to 5.6% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024.