The European Commission is exploring ways to cover Ukraine’s 2026 budget deficit, which could reach $19B, due to reduced US support and declining hopes for a ceasefire with Russia. The European Commission is currently discussing three Ukrainian financing options with EU member states for next year:
- The first proposal is to send military support to Ukraine as bilateral grants that would be included in national defense spending figures. This would help meet NATO commitments to increase national defense spending to 5% of GDP while supporting Ukraine.
- The second option is to accelerate the pace of payments made under the G7 ERA program by $50B, which offers loans to Ukraine that will be repaid from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets. However, Ukraine would still need at least an additional $8B in financing by 2026 if the war continues.
- Another option is to increase returns on frozen Russian funds by reinvesting them in riskier assets.