According to the National Bank, the situation in the labor market remains challenging: The unemployment rate decreased slightly during the first half of the year but remained high. The dynamics of labor supply in recent months have almost returned to the pre-crisis trajectory.
According to the NBU, the unemployment rate in 2022 was 21.1% and is predicted to be 19% in 2023, 16.9% in 2024, and 14.4% in 2025. However, the bank noted that the unemployment rate in the medium term will exceed the pre-invasion level.
At the same time, the regulator predicts that the average nominal salary in Ukraine will increase by 19.6% this year and the real wage (inflation-adjusted) by 3.9%. In 2024, the nominal wage will increase by 16.1%, real by 5.2%, and in 2025 by 12.8% and 5.4%, respectively. The National Bank also predicts that the minimum wage will increase from UAH 6,700 to UAH 7,665 in 2024 and reach UAH 8,200 in 2025.