According to KSE analysis, in October 2024, Russia’s oil export revenue increased by $1.2B, to $15.6B. 85% of deliveries were made by shadow tankers, which allowed Russia to evade the price limit of $60 per barrel, enabling it to finance its military operations. Russian Urals oil rose in price to about $63 per barrel.
In October, India imported 1.865 million barrels daily from Russia, 53% of Russia’s oil exports by sea. Deliveries to Turkey increased by 150% to 329,000 barrels per day. In addition, ship managers from the UAE and China facilitate oil transportation at prices exceeding $60 per barrel.
Russia’s oil revenue is projected to reach $193B in 2024 and $137B in 2025 under current conditions. However, weak sanctions compliance could lead to an increase in revenue to $167B and $165B in 2025 and 2026, respectively.