A few weeks before talks between US President Trump and Russian President Putin, the Russian Central Bank alerted the Kremlin to the possibility of a prolonged drop in oil prices, similar to the one that preceded the USSR’s downfall. Such a scenario, based on the Russian Central Bank’s forecast, could occur if the US and OPEC saturate the oil market by ramping up oil production.
The collapse of oil prices in the 1980s caused a sharp decline in the Soviet economy, ultimately leading to the USSR’s dissolution in 1991. In 1998, Moscow declared a default on its external debt after oil prices plummeted to $10 per barrel.
Currently, OPEC+ is expected to maintain its plan to boost oil production for the second consecutive month in May, increasing output by 135,000 barrels per day. Additionally, Iraq, the second-largest OPEC+ oil producer, aims to raise its oil production capacity to over six million barrels per day by 2029, up from its current output of about four million barrels per day.