In response to the stagnation of the US-brokered peace process, the Russian occupation army has initiated a large-scale offensive in the Donetsk region. American analysts report that Russian dictator Putin remains confident in his ability to win the war militarily, although sanctions and heavy losses may gradually undermine Russia’s military capacity, making this summer potentially its last chance for a serious push.
In addition to the main offensive in Donetsk, the Kremlin plans to launch smaller attacks along the borders of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. The main forces are expected to concentrate in the Donetsk region, while other actions will serve as distractions to draw away Ukrainian resources and attention. Currently, 125,000 fighters are positioned along the border with the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. According to Ukrainian intelligence, this number is insufficient to capture two regional centers.
The Ukrainian military has pointed out that Russia will likely attempt to use a potential breakthrough in the border areas of Sumy and Kharkiv regions as a means of political pressure, particularly in the negotiation process, by adding two more regions to the agenda.