A generation deficit in winter and blackouts are unavoidable, and in the best-case scenario, there will be no electricity for up to five hours a day, said DTEK. And this is provided that Russia inflicts no further damage on the power system and temperatures do not drop below -15 degrees.
The main problem this winter is the damage that has been done to the main power plants, not the substations, most of which are protected by shelters and are being quickly repaired, noted former head of Ukrenergo Volodymyr Kudrytskyi.
“Deficits and blackouts are inevitable. The question is how big they will be,” he said.
The current head of Ukrenergo, Oleksiy Brecht, noted that Ukraine can get through the winter without electricity restrictions, provided the temperature does not drop below zero. If it will be -10 or -15 degrees for three days or more, then the power system’s deficit may amount to 2,000-2,500 MW, which could equate to two rounds of blackouts (about eight hours a day). These values are marginal, and the company has worked out several compensatory factors to reduce the deficit.