It is unlikely that Belarus will participate in the war against Ukraine.

Even though the Russian Federation constantly conducts information operations indicating that Belarusian troops may join the Russian invasion of Ukraine, such a development is unlikely, said analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). “The goal of these efforts is to pin down Ukrainian forces near the border with Belarus so that they cannot strengthen Ukrainian operations in other places of the theater of war,” experts explain. In addition, Belarus’ support for the Russian aggression is already depleting its forces, with its stocks of equipment and ammunition being transferred to the Russian Federation for its use. Furthermore, the degradation of the Russian armed forces due to the devastating losses in Ukraine will also prevent the deployment of Belarusian mechanized troops for combat operations alongside Russian forces. In their current state Russian units cannot effectively operate in joint operations. Therefore, the outcome of efforts to use such combined units in combat is likely to be poor, the ISW emphasizes.