Inflation is likely to hit 20% this spring.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew 1.6% MoM in February, accelerating annual CPI growth to 10.7% YoY. Last month, most of the price hikes were concentrated in fuel and staple foods, the items which have the fastest ignition in times of worry about possible shortages. Obviously, fuel was also affected by logistical issues and skyrocketing crude oil prices. These developments do not represent the effects of war, which started on 24 February, when most price changes had been already fed into the CPI calculation. Therefore, we expect strong CPI acceleration in the upcoming month, with inflation probably hitting 20% by May. This situation does not have a monetary solution and will need any financial effort to be applied under the current circumstances. Mass migration will also affect inflation significantly by emerging regional demand-supply disparities, reported the Head of Research of Alfa-Bank, Oleksiy Blinov.