Major companies like BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies are boosting their exploration efforts, anticipating that demand for fossil fuels will persist for decades. Company leaders have announced a shift from renewable energy to expanding their resource base through exploration and drilling new wells.
Analysts forecast that, under a slower green transition scenario, global oil requirements will grow by about 5% annually from the mid-2030s, with over 100 billion barrels that must be discovered by 2050. Last year, about five billion barrels were discovered worldwide, representing 19% of annual production, highlighting a significant potential shortfall.
BP has made the most drastic change – after investing $15B in green projects since 2021, the company now plans to increase investment in oil and gas, drill 40 exploration wells over three years, and reports the largest discovery in 25 years off Brazil’s coast. Despite this shift, industry investment in exploration remains well below the peak levels seen between 2010 and 2015.