According to NBU estimates, supplies will reach their pre-pandemic level in 2025, that is, at the end of the planning horizon.
By the third quarter of 2025, the National Bank predicts a steady decline in global metal prices. But regarding steel and iron ore prices, the regulator revised the forecast upward in 2023 compared to previous estimates. This is due to a significant increase in demand from Turkey in response to reconstruction in the regions affected by the recent earthquake.
In the case of grain, in 2023 prices will fluctuate within relatively narrow limits, and market supply will be ensured by Ukraine. This year, prices will be held back from a big drop by the increased use of grain in the food industry and as feed, as well as a second year in a row of declining global stockpiles, forecasted to fall by 2.6%. In the future, increasing the production of wheat and corn will cause a long-term decrease in world prices.