Danish military intelligence claims that if the war in Ukraine is stopped or frozen, and if NATO is unable to rearm, Russia will be prepared for a large-scale war in Europe within five years.
The report notes that in parallel with military actions against Ukraine, Russia has initiated a significant rebuilding and reform of its armed forces. Over the past year, these efforts have grown from a task of restoration to “an intensive buildup of military power with the aim of waging war against NATO.”
Danish intelligence predicts three stages of Russia’s conflict with NATO:
- If hostilities in Ukraine cease, Russia will be able to wage a local war in one of its neighboring countries within six months.
- In two years, there will be a real threat to one or more NATO countries. The Russian Federation will be ready for a regional war against several states in the Baltic Sea region.
- In five years, Russia launching a large-scale war on the European continent will be possible.