According to analysts, at the offensive’s current pace and rate of military losses, Russia will need around 230 years to gain control of the still unoccupied Ukrainian territories – nearly 490,000 square kilometers, or 81% of Ukraine. In doing so, an estimated 101 million Russian soldiers would die.
The total area of Ukraine exceeds 603,000 square kilometers, and since February 2022, Russian troops have occupied approximately 19% of the country’s territory. They seized most Ukrainian lands in the first weeks of the invasion. Over the past year, their area of control has increased by only 0.5%.
However, despite nearly 800,000 casualties, the Russian army is replenishing its ranks with 30,000 new soldiers every month. According to estimates by Christopher Cavoli, the commander of US forces in Europe, the Russian contingent in Ukraine now numbers at least 600,000 soldiers – the highest level of the entire war and almost double the invasion force’s initial size. According to Cavoli, the Kremlin remains committed to a prolonged conflict that could eventually extend beyond Ukraine.