According to the Central Bank, the US sanctions targeting the Russian oil and gas sector, along with the shadow fleet, introduced on January 10 are expected to cost Russia roughly 1% of its total exports. These restrictions have led to a reduction in the 2025 physical export growth forecast by one percentage point, a change linked to the tightening of sanctions on specific commodity markets. Although the sanctions will diminish oil and gas supply volumes, total exports are still projected to increase from $417B in 2024 to $419B.
However, the Central Bank’s risk scenario anticipates less positive outcomes: If sanctions intensify and a global crisis unfolds, Russia’s exports could decline by 8-10% in 2025 and another 3-5% in 2026. In monetary terms, this would amount to a 33% decrease to $278B, followed by an additional 14% drop in 2026, bringing exports down to $240B.
Moreover, on February 27 Donald Trump extended the US’ sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 after its invasion of Crimea. Such conditions may trigger a new wave of economic recession, a devaluation of the ruble, and an inflation spike in Russia.