More than a third of loans issued by Ukrainian banks, or 37.4%, have been overdue for more than 90 days. Experts are convinced that in 2024, the share of NPLs in Ukraine’s banking system will decrease.
The Chairman of the Board of Unex Bank, Ivan Svitek, predicts that the share of problem loans will decrease faster in state-owned banks since their average NPL situation is worse than at private banks, which have already reduced their indicator from 23.7% to 16% last year.
A member of the board of Globus Bank, Olena Yermolova, believes that a significant reduction of problem loans is possible under two conditions: victory in the war, the growth of the economy, and a corresponding increase in consumer income. Financial uncertainty may restrain the development of lending. Problem loans will be in remission, and their volume may decrease slightly to 25-28%.
“Under an optimistic scenario, a further reduction in loan rates is estimated at 2-3%, while the number of NPLs may also decrease to 20%,” Yermolova clarified.