A drop in oil prices to $40 per barrel within a year would lead to Russia lacking funds to wage its war against Ukraine, said former Russian Prime Minister Mykhailo Kasyanov at the Warsaw Security Forum.
He added that revenues from oil and gas exports accounted for 45% of federal budget revenues in 2021, and now it is much lower – 30%, because Europe was able to abandon Russian gas. Kasyanov believes that lower oil prices will negatively impact the Russian economy more than sanctions. And if military spending is 15% of GDP, it will spell disaster for the Russian Federation.
Kasyanov called on the West to double its military and financial support to Ukraine so that the war will end within a year.
Bloomberg reported that the weekly export volume of Russian oil last week increased by about 850,000 barrels per day, its highest level since the end of June.