The Russian Federation still makes a great deal of profit from oil and gas supply to EU countries, but this may change after Donald Trump takes office as the US president. Trump is anticipated to provide support for the US oil and gas industry to stimulate the production of these resources. In addition, the EU stated that they are open to purchasing more American LNG.
During his election campaign, Trump talked about increasing oil production in the US and ending the inflationary crisis. The initial market reaction to Trump’s election victory was muted, but in the medium term, it is expected to strengthen the US’ role as a leading exporter of oil and LNG. This scenario would see energy companies receive less profit, but consumers pay less for energy resources. As a result, Russia will also fall short of generating the significant funds it spends on its war with Ukraine.
Currently, the Russians have a reserve of economic capacity sufficient to last until the middle or end of next year, but after that, their economy could collapse without oil and gas revenue.